Monday, 02 July 2007

By D. W. O’Dell Now that we’ve learned the identity of the real Deep Throat (no, not Linda Lovelace), we also know the sad truth: that Deep’s Throat’s famous catch phrase, “Follow the money,” was the product of a screenwriter, not reality. But it’s still good advice. Have you ever asked yourself why network programming is a train wreck of popular shows on Thursday nights? Grey’s Anatomy vs. CSI. Survivor vs. Ugly Betty. NBC’s Comedy Done Right, the successor to Must See TV. Why all the fuss over Thursday? The answer is that Thursday comes before Friday (duh). Friday is significant because that’s when movies are released. So, if studios want their movies to have a good opening weekend - and nowadays it’s all about the opening weekend - they want to buy lots of ad space Thursday night. Otherwise, people might not know what film they want to see on Friday or Saturday. Follow the money. But, there’s a fly buzzing close to the ointment. According to a report on the online edition of Advertising Age, studios are pointing to the increased usage of digital recorders as frustrating their efforts. Time shifting using videotape was bad enough, but now young, relatively affluent people, the prime target of studio advertisements, increasingly use services like TiVo or digital cable's DVRs to record shows and watch them later. The worst part is that these people can fast forward through the commercials (the bastards). Even if they do watch the commercials, it won’t be on Thursday night when studios want to reach potential ticket buyers. As such, studios are reportedly re-thinking their commitment of large amounts of money to advertise on Thursday night. This is the proverbial tip of the proverbial iceberg, and the entire economic structure of television is the proverbial Titanic. Sponsors buy time for commercials; networks take the money and give it to producers, who hire actors, directors, and occasionally writers to make TV shows. What if people are able to watch TV, but can avoid watching the commercials? There’s a Latin phrase they used to put on maps to denote unexplored territory: hic sunt dracones, or, “Here there be dragons.” The impact of digital recorders (DVRs) was driven home recently when the Nielsen Company started including people who time shift into their calculations. One result was that shows like ABC's Lost, whose ratings have (apparently) dropped significantly since its first season, were actually doing a lot better if you counted the time shifters. But advertisers don’t care about the time shifters; they only care about the diminishing portion of the population that watches the show - and the commercials - in real time.  What can be done? I suspect FOX fired a salvo last month when the finale of American Idol “accidentally” ran over by ten minutes. There was a hue and cry from time shifters whose DVRs cut off just as Ryan Seacrest said, “And the winner is . . .” FOX claimed it was a result of a live program coming in late due to unforeseen circumstances, but the consequence is that it would make fans much less likely to trust their DVRs in the future. An accident? I wonder. There are other revenue streams networks can try to tap, such as on-set product placement, made easier by digital computer technology that can change a generic soft drink into a can of Coke with the push of a button. On the CW's Smallville, Clark’s friend Chloe mentioned her spiffy new Yaris in just about every episode. Networks can also try and negotiate a bigger cut of DVD sales, where fans of a show pay the money directly to the producers in exchange for being able to watch the program without commercials. I have no idea how these deals are structured now, but I would guess in the future networks will see their giving air time to a program as the equivalent of giving them exposure to potential DVD buyers. There have been other seismic shifts in television economics. It used to be that affiliates paid networks to get access to their content; now content is so prolific, in larger markets networks have to pay affiliates to gain access to those markets. The result was imperceptible to most viewers. I don’t expect the face of network television to change overnight. But pressures to stop the reliance on financing programs through the selling of commercial time, with fees based on ratings, are in place. Viewers simply have too many options, and too much technology helping them to avoid those darned commercials. People can work late on weeknights and then watch their DVR’ed programs on the weekend. And the younger, more affluent viewers - the ones most prized by advertisers - will be the ones most capable of watching TV on their own terms, not the networks. Sponsors used to buy entire shows, like the Colgate Comedy Hour; now that seems quaint. Television programming driven by commercial revenues won’t go away anytime soon, but watch out. Those aren’t vultures circling overhead, they’re dragons.

 

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