By Dee-Dum
Edited by shrrshrr
What do the following names have in common: Jason White, Eric Crouch, Chris Weinke, Danny Wuerffel, Charlie Ward and Gino Torretta? If you answered that they are all Heisman-winning quarterbacks, you are half right. If you answered that they are Heisman-winning quarterbacks who were or are on their way to being complete busts in the NFL, you get full credit. Carson Palmer appears to be the only recent Heisman-winning QB headed for success.
Meanwhile, low draft picks like Tom Brady (#199 in 2000) and Joe Montana have flourished, and undrafted players like Kurt Warner and Jeff Garcia have made it to Pro Bowls or Super Bowls. Doug Flutie was drafted #285 in the 1985 draft and has since led several NFL teams to the playoffs (not to mention winning several Canadian Grey Cups). On the weekend of Nov. 27, 7th round draftee and former Harvard quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 310 yards and a Rams victory. The moral seems clear—don’t bet your team’s number one draft pick on a quarterback.
There are other cautionary tales. First round choices Ryan Leaf, Jim Druckenmiller and Tim Couch were complete busts. Philip Rivers was signed for big bucks by San Diego and lounges on their bench for another season. Number 3 overall pick Joey Harrington has just about worn out his welcome in Detroit. The 49ers spent a guaranteed $24 million on Alex Smith in the hopes that maybe, someday, eventually, he’ll be another Joe Montana; right now his passer rating is a dismal 17.5.
Sure there are success stories—there’d have to be. Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh made an immediate impact. Eli Manning is blossoming in his second year with the Giants (but with a father like Archie Manning and a brother like Peyton, the kid has an unparalleled pedigree). And the aforementioned Carson Palmer is a legitimate MVP candidate in his second year. Number one picks, John Elway and Troy Aikman, went on to have Hall of Fame caliber careers.
But when highly touted college quarterbacks go bad, they go supernova bad. So…why take the risk? Okay, maybe highly touted college cornerbacks also fail, but at the same rate, and as completely? If I was an NFL GM, I wouldn’t risk my team’s future by drafting a college quarterback in the first round. You’ll have to commit tons of money to someone who may never play at all, or who is nothing but a glorified backup. If you have an established QB (and even most bad teams do) you create an immediate “quarterback controversy.” And even if there is an eventual payoff, it will likely be years away.
Plus, since bad teams get to choose in the draft first, the college phenom will be expected to lead a team that probably isn’t that good. Alex Smith risks injury with every snap he takes because of the 49ers porous front line. Joey Harrington has had to compensate for a poor defense and an anemic running attack in Detroit. Putting pressure to turn a team around single-handedly can intimidate the most capable athlete.
Successful QBs in the NFL are increasingly experienced guys who don’t make mistakes. Brad Johnson has turned around Minnesota after replacing the more talented Daunte Culpepper. Trent Dilfer led the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory. At quarterback, competency is increasingly more important than talent, and only someone who has played in the NFL for several years can avoid the mistakes of youth.
My advice to GMs? Draft defense. Draft receivers. Draft running backs. Trade for a quarterback or, if you must, find an obscure kid who did well at an out-of-the way college and draft him in the 6th or 7th round. College performance by a quarterback is clearly no predictor of NFL success. As good as Matt Leinart has been at USC, the smart team will draft Reggie Bush first. Of course, if the 49ers get first pick they chose their “quarterback of the future” last year.
