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Thursday, 04 May 2006 |
By Alexander O’Grady
 Here is an argument that will probably make me unpopular with draft-nicks and NFL fans everywhere: we put too much stock into the NFL Draft. Or, to rephrase: we put too much stock into the first round of the NFL Draft, and especially the first pick. For a sporting event where the only thing happening is Commissioner Tagliabue reciting names from a podium, the draft has too much interest vested in it. There is no tackling, no touchdowns, no refereeing controversy - and yet, it is still a spectacle. It is in the middle of a long off-season, but that is not all the reason for its popularity - the reason is, more than anything, that it gives fans hope for next season.
Most of the coverage and interest lies in the first round. This, however, is not necessarily what one should focus on.
Pop-quiz for everyone: who was the last number one draft pick to win the Super Bowl with the team that drafted him? Give up? The answer is Orlando Pace, the offensive tackle of St. Louis' 1997 draft. We have to go all the way back to 1989 to find the last number one pick in a "skill position" to win the Super Bowl with the team that drafted him - Dallas' quarterback, Troy Aikman. The team that picks first in a draft does so because they were a sad-sack franchise the previous season - one player will not turn them around.
If, as had been widely expected, the Houston Texans had made USC running back Reggie Bush their number one pick instead of Mario Willams, they would not suddenly displace Indianapolis and Jacksonville as the powerhouses in the AFC South as they would still have had an offensive line which could not even open holes for Calista Flockhart to get through. Even with the parity in the NFL, one player does not a team make. A good example of this is that of the Eagles, with notorious head-case Terrell Owens, who have just as many rings as the Eagles without Owens - zero.
Also, making a determination of which players would be good NFL players based on their college experience is sometimes a crap-shoot. The name Ryan Leaf is bound to bring gray hairs to GMs everywhere. In the 1999 draft, there was considerable debate as to whether the Indianapolis Colts should pick Leaf, the strong-armed quarterback out of Washington State University, or Peyton Manning of Tennessee, as their number one choice and the draft's number one pick. In the end, the Colts went with Manning, and ended up with a player that, in 2004, broke the single-season record for touchdown passes. Leaf, meanwhile, went as the second pick to the San Diego Chargers. However, Leaf, for many reasons including some character deficits, could not make the transition to the NFL, retiring in 2002 and ending up with just 14 touchdowns to 36 interceptions, and a career quarterback rating of 50.00. That’s just ten points higher than you'd get if you threw every pass into the top of the stands.
While the first round is what most people care about and sportswriters write their mock-drafts about, a team is built in rounds two to seven. Tom Brady, the two-time Super Bowl MVP, was drafted in the sixth round. Lofa Tatupu, Anquan Boldin and Odell Thurman are all standout players drafted in the second round. A guy like Priest Holmes was an un-drafted free agent. As evidenced, you can find some very good players in the later rounds (and on the free-agent scrapheap) and it is the teams that can find 'the next Brady' that will succeed. While people obsess over and debate what order Leinhart, Young and Cutler will be picked, the beauty of the draft is that, in five years' time, some seventh round tight end from Central Montana State may be more valuable than all of them, combined. |
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